PVC price Spun PolyPropylene Fabric factors and trend discussion of textual records

Date:2022-7-19 Author:Sam

Hexun Futures News \u0026 nbsp; The 2012 China Plastic Industry Conference, hosted by Da Shang, was held in Ningbo from May 30th to 31st. Hexun, as an exclusive financial portal website, live broadcast the meeting throughout the meeting.
Reception of the forum:

Section 4 \u0026 nbsp; Host: Middle LSNH Cable Extrusion Line Secretary of the Chlorophyr Industry Association secretary \u0026 nbsp; Forum

1, 20112 China’s PVC value influencing factors and trend discussion

2. PVC market development outlook

Forum guest:
PetroChina (601857, stock bar) and and the stock) Deputy Secretary -General of the Chemical Industry Federation and Secretary -General of the China Electric Stone Industry Association \u0026 nbsp; Sun Weishan
Sinopec (600028, Stock Bar) Qilu Branch Deputy General Economist Zhang Renwu
Yibin Tianyuan Group (002386, stock bar) Co., Ltd. Xiao Jingshi, General Manager of Sales Corporation
Yuan Gen, Chairman and General Manager of Wuxi Liyuan Chemical Group Co., Ltd.
Tian Hongyi, general manager of Shanghai Xinyou Industrial Co., Ltd.
Zhang Peichao (host): Guests and friends , Polyethylene Sub -Sub -guest Forum We started now. There are not many people. It is said that there are more upstairs. It seems that polyolefins are more than polyvinyl chloride. Here are five guests to come to power. First of all, there are Mr. Sun Weishan, deputy secretary -general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, and Secretary -General of the China Electric Stone Industry Association. Mr. Xiao Jingshi, general manager of the Group Co., Ltd., Mr. Yuan Gen, Chairman and General Manager of Wuxi Lifan Chemical Group Co., Ltd., and Mr. Tian Hongyi, general manager of Shanghai Xinyou Industrial Co., Ltd., please!
Today we are very honored to invite five leaders and guests. It should be said that the five guests we invited are very representative. It is not only the deputy secretary -general of the chlorine industry, but also a typical predecessor in the eastern part of Petrochemical. There is also Mr. Xiao, who represents Yibin Tianyuan Group in the West. At the same time, we are also honored to invite the two traders leaders Yuan and President Tian to know the PVC trade very well, and it is exactly in -depth discussions on the topic of PVC.
I prepared some questions in advance today. If you want to ask questions on the spot, you can also use the table or the question card around me to give me a question to the five guests here. Now we officially start, starting with Secretary -General Sun, Secretary -General Sun knows very well in the PVC chemical industry. As of the end of 2012, the entire macroeconomic trend is very severe and stressful. middleThe country’s GDP is expected to be reduced to 7.5%, and the recent executive meeting of the State Council that has just been held recently has focused on steady growth. Therefore, the macro economy we face now is very complicated at home and abroad. I want to invite Secretary-General Sun to briefly introduce the industry situation of our country’s petrochemical industry from January-May 2012, including how to go in the market outlook?
Sun Weishan: Thank you! The number in May has not come out in the future. The 1-4 industrial output value is 38,000, and the increase will fall by more than 16%. In April, the growth rate was only 14. The growth rate from January to April last year was 31:00 it’s the same. The sales rate of sales decreased compared to last year, and the industry and sales rate of the industry was less than 98%, 97.97%. The production and sales rate in April could reach 98.3%, a decrease of one point from April last year. Our industry has decreased from output value, including sales rates.
\u0026 nbsp; \u0026 nbsp; \u0026 nbsp; Reflect that the most fundamental situation of our industry is our profits. Our industry’s profits are more than 1720 million yuan from January to March, an increase of 15%over the same period last year. Industry with close relationships with our crude oil industry, profits are negatively growing. In particular, our crude oil industry is a loss in the industry, and the industry has lost 85 billion. The most closely related to the forum today, the synthetic material industry has decreased a lot. Last year, 16 billion yuan, 38 billion this year. This industry decreased by 34.1%year -on -year from last year, and it also declined. Our organic products have also declined, and our growth industries are still there, but it is not particularly closely related to the refining industry. Our chemistry, pesticides, and inorganic salts are still growing. Our synthetic glue drops sharply, and the tires have not changed much. All related to our industry, or the industry losses, or negative growth.
Regarding the future trend, we also opened an analyst before we came to study how much the trend of our industry declined to? Our preliminary analysis believes that the country is declining from January to April, and the decline in May is expected to be too April. If it will decline in May, the country may still have measures to stimulate the development of the national economy. The stimulus policy will also be introduced one after another. We expect that the industry will rise in June to July. After the first half of the year, the decline will rise in the third quarter. By July, there will be a trend of rising. It can only be said that the decline can slow down. It can be said that it will go up. It is expected to be a little better than the current number throughout the year, now 14.7%, and the industry will increase by about 17%compared with the same period last year.
What are the signs of good signs in our industry? The new start -up projects in our industry this year, including industry investment, have increased significantly compared with the same period last year. The professor also said in the morning that the country is developing a new approval of many projects. Many projects are approved by the government, which also causes another problem to have another problem. The industry’s loans, including interest and financial expenditure, are also growing significantly. I give it a bigThere are so many introduction to the family, and you can ask questions at any time.
Zhang Peichao (host): Thank you Secretary -General Sun, the whole downward pressure is relatively large and complicated. The next question, Mr. Zhang, currently asking Mr. Zhang, currently like brain oil, like the natural gas in the Middle East, including the shale gas in the United States in recent years, and the cost is relatively low, including the Middle East. In the face of new international developments, Mr. Zhang, please talk about what is the latest internationally changed in the world’s latest changes in the PPC industry, and how should we deal with it?
Zhang Renwu: Thank you! good afternoon everyone! Nowadays, the Middle East and the United States have a great impact on petrochemical products. It also includes that everyone knows that the recent rise and fall of crude oil has been greatly ups and downs. The influence of all aspects, this influence is now relatively obvious. Today the futures talk about LLDPE, PVC, and PE. After entering April, the best product in PE is LLDPE. The quality and cost of quality production are high, but the price is the price, but the price is the price, but the price is the price, but the price Because Iran sells its products to China, there is already a relatively obvious situation. No way, I thought that LLDPE felt bad. I discontinued production in 4, HDPE, HDPE ethylene content, 500 ethylene a day, but there was no way to stop hdpe before I came, and opened LLDPE. Low, the price of selling is still high. What’s wrong with this? This is also the influence of state -owned enterprises that turn forward regardless of earnings and compensation.
Especially in our folk industry, you are afraid of it. You are a PPC country. Mr. Hu specializes in the meeting to turn China’s large output power into a strong country. Therefore It is said that the information that these experts explain to you are not very close. Today’s news is broadcast. Premier Wen said that it should ensure 8%, not 7.5%, and in the case of double control, how can we China deal with The European crisis and measures to deal with the current situation of China are mainly focused on stable growth, structure, and transition methods.
More importantly, no matter whether futures, virtual economies, or the real economy in the enterprise, we must also pay attention to the quality and real service to guide the downstream. Before the meeting, I communicated with the pipe secretary general and guided the downstream to improve his processing. Quality, which is a problem for us to pave the way for us to make the Avenue. This is a problem. Now there are many large occasions, big meetings about national leaders and government leaders. After 30 years and 50 years, what will be evaluated by future descendants? Do you praise you or scold you or complain about you. You use his resources to light up and waste, so if you want to deal with the crisis of the Middle East, the United States, or Europe, you should cross the difficulty of the big enterprise or the virtual economy. If the central government is also arrested, I estimate that it is expected in the third quarter that there will be good phenomena in the 4th quarter. Only in the competition can we show that we are the heroes of the virtual economy or the real economy.Color, thank you!
Zhang Peichao (host): Thank you President Zhang, we will put the focus of attention to Xinjiang next. Everyone knows that Xinjiang is now wanting to settle in many companies, and the country has already implemented it. Let’s ask Xiao Xiao. Generally, he has begun the step of implementation. We ask Mr. Xiao to look forward to the formation of such a large planning capacity in Xinjiang. How much does it affect the overall chlor -alkali industry in Xinjiang or the country? Please answer by Mr. Xiao.
Xiao Jingshi: Good afternoon! Thank you very much for your concern and concern. Tianyuan officially announced at the beginning of this year to establish Tianyuan Energy Co., Ltd. in Xinjiang. This matter is far away. Our company pays attention to Xinjiang as early as possible or transferred Xinjiang. The source is very early It was around 2007. At that time, we considered the adjustment of the industry at that time or the concept of transfer. At that time, it was limited, mainly from the intervention of the local governments at that time. We were not very flexible in the system. The government has some restrictions, and it is not very agreed. This incident has stifled the entire strategic idea. With the optimization of our company’s listing, the entire equity structure is optimized, and the current needs of the entire industrial development has contributed to this.
There is also a background that our original base, the one who relocated and the headquarters, is now facing the urbanization plan of the local government where the progress of urbanization is seriously affected, so it also uses this to use this. Opportunity, we successfully achieved the transfer. Last year, we reached a framework of cooperation with local partners in Xinjiang. After the Spring Festival this year, the construction stage is currently under construction, including overall planning and design. Enter the implementation stage. At the same time as the implementation of the workers over there, the headquarters has 200,000 devices to relocate Xinjiang. After the relocation is completed, next year, the installation of the headquarters in the next year will be relocated to Xinjiang. The first idea was to complete the old factory area of \u200b\u200bthe headquarters. Use relocation to move more than 300,000 devices. In Xinjiang, it is still energy, including technology upgrades and industrial considerations. While moving to Xinjiang, we have also engaged in new material industrial parks locally. It is also based on the research and development of new materials in the early stage or research work. If the operation is successful, or it can have a good prospect, it does not rule out that we follow up some replication in Xinjiang, or carry out large -scale production, or support the industry.
From President Zhang, the development of Xinjiang is indeed a hot land, the national macro policy support, and the need for the development of Xinjiang, and the needs of the country from industrial adjustment and transfer. In the next 5 to 10 years of emerging development directions, we are actually striving to seize this opportunity. At present, from the perspective of chlorine structure, there is no such competitive advantage in the southwest, especially in the cost of cost. At present, the chlorine industry is still strictly a stage of cost competition.Regardless of whether a large company or a small enterprise in a chlorine industry, there are really not many innovative technologies, and it is not prominent. At this stage, it is still a game in large -scale and cost. Because Xinjiang has a natural or unique energy advantage, it meets the needs of the entire industry and industry development at this stage. We foresee that in the future, with the in -depth development of the entire Xinjiang, or the greater development of the industry and the industry in the future, the competition for cost may also face one day of the end of life, and to participate in this market in the future.
Zhang Peichao (host): Thank you Mr. Xiao. Next, there is a question, Mr. Yuan Hetian. PVC trade has high requirements for logistics, warehouses, and price strategies. How to avoid trade risks is a concern for many trading companies. There are many friends in the trade community, and I will introduce the experience of trade by President Yuan and President Tian and share with you. At the same time, there is also a question. Is the future of futures helping trading companies? Can the substantial help obtained by the enterprise can be quantified? This is a specific operation between futures and trade. Let’s start with President Yuan!
Yuan Gen: Laders, good afternoon! Thank you for giving me this opportunity. I can’t talk about experience. I can only talk about each other. It has been established in 1993 to the present for 20 years. It is mainly based on chemical trade and small loan companies, with sales of nearly 200,000 and in small parts of Jiangsu, East China and South China.
I have been engaged in PVC 20 years of sweetness and bitterness with the big family. It is mainly railway in terms of logistics. For example, the Shanghai railway and Wuxi railway communicate, and establish a good cooperative relationship with the manufacturer. On the above, we reduce the logistics cycle in terms of logistics, send people to the delivery during the delivery, and even reflect the supplier from opening the door to the end of the other party, and also follow up.
In terms of storage, it is better to choose services, especially the railway line, and our company’s trade profits are very thin. Increase service awareness in the storage costs, and there is a problem of processing. For those who have been doing 20 years, whether the market is good, the market is not good, we are all stable goods, and the manufacturer is also stable. The cycle. The market market is good or bad. Communicate upstream and downstream. Our company has worked hard in stable development for a long time. Thank you!
Tian Hongyi: Thank you! I asked several questions just now. The first question was the experience of PVC trade. The experience was actually lessons. From the lesson, I was just thinking about it. Maybe it may be a few times. Essence In my impression, what was PVC trade before 1997? The plan is the core trade. Who has the indicator and who has the amount of PVC, then the trade is successful. From 1997 to 2002, VCM processing PVCs in the coastal areas from 2003 to 2003 entered China. In addition, the imported PVC entered a large number, and the best trade in the time period was basically linked to the outside. 20Anti-dumping after 2002. From 2002-2008, China’s PVC began to develop sharply from a very low proportion. In 2008, it reached 60%. This time period PVC trade industry is mainly in the role of regional agents and funds. After the financial crisis in 2008 until now, my feelings are that our trade circle is familiar. There are two types of trade models in the mainstream: one is a large group in regional domestic groups. The current trade model is not just It is the question of who I buy with money to make money. Basically, I have reached my inventory, logistics costs, warehouse layout, and capital costs. This is the trade operation model of the Group. The second is lower than regional and serves end customers. These two categories are people who do well in trade.
The host just asked three questions. Futures and trade operations. We have two types of products, and the entire trade volume has been cash more after 2008. I can only say that my own feelings. These two products. These two products. Different, the time for futures and spot operations, our operation is basically operated by inventory fluctuations. Our current inventory increases or decreases. To this extent, it has not been greatly synchronized with the spot and futures. I personally feel that the risk in it is relatively large, and the key is related to the current cash products. In terms of PVC’s futures hedging, it is difficult to do in a short time hedge. The amplitude of PVC futures fluctuations and the impact on the spot are now relatively low. Our PVC spot and futures hedge may only have two chances a year. Delivery is difficult to do at present, probably like this.
Zhang Peichao (host): Can the company’s substantial help be quantified through futures? To put it plainly, how much can I make through futures?
Tian Hongyi: Actually, I think this point is that we are not scientific to make money by spot futures and futures investment. From 2008 to now, it is a huge decline in the 3rd quarter of 2008 to the 4th quarter. At that time, We will do less in stock and make less futures. If I want to quantify the futures from 2009 to now, I don’t know how other colleagues do. Our approach is different. The numbers may be positive, but they will still lose money. What we do to push the mode, we currently know that there are a lot of domestic, especially in the product products, a lot of futures hedging companies made from financial and futures perspectives. This model is different from us. Futures You can make a lot of money on your spot.
Zhang Peichao (host): Thank you President Tian. Next, Secretary -General Sun, the electrical stone policy on the future development of the industry, including the market, is still very large. What are the policy pressures facing the electrone industry in the future? What are the major impacts on the industry?
Sun Weishan: This is simple with everyoneLet me introduce it alone that the electric stone industry has received the attention of the leaders of the State Council and is the only small industry that has received the attention of the State Council’s leadership. The industry is not too large. Why does the industry pay attention to the country? Because it is a high -energy consumption industry, our country is an industry with a lack of energy. At the same time, there are some technical problems in the electrone industry. Some enterprises have a backward supply equipment and will bring pollution to the environment. Therefore, it also attracts the attention of the country.
Due to the adjustment of several rounds of electricity prices, each adjustment of the electric stone industry is ranked among the front. Each round of electricity price adjustment can not escape, the electric stone industry has increased from 3 cents to 5 cents. The influence of the industry.
In addition, everyone should pay attention to the influence of electrical stones on the industry. In the second half of 2010, the electric stone industry was very profitable. If it is closed, the other part of the company has made money, and some companies have been treated unfairly.
In September of last year, the State Council released a comprehensive plan for energy conservation and emission reduction of energy conservation and emission reduction. It is necessary to establish a standard for energy consumption in the industry, and the electrical stone industry will be the first to occupy it. Energy -saving and emission reduction on the backward production capacity of the electrone industry. From 2006, we have backward production capacity. This year, the documents will be issued to 1.2 million. The goal is 1.2 million, and the final settled resolution of 1.35 million. By the \”Twelfth Five -Year Plan\” backward production capacity is definitely not lower than the \”Eleventh Five -Year Plan\” period, why? Now we are limited to access conditions. Both the electric stones and PVC are doing. Some companies have not been eliminated, not that the country forcibly eliminate you, because you are eliminated because you don’t work hard. Now there are some reward funds in the country. The local area has support for your backward production capacity. Most of the regional economy does not develop enough. It can only achieve financial money, about 600,000-800,000, and the policy of implementing backwardness is not the same.
Recently, everyone has also seen that one of the two plans announced, one of which is the solution of gas gas, 80-90%of the capacity of the capacity is the inner salt furnace (sound), and the enterprise should use the exhaust gas to use it. Production chemical products can solve the problem of electric stone production. This may be that the cost of electric stones may be reduced with the implementation of the policy and the transformation and implementation of some enterprises, which may have some impacts. I will introduce so much first.
Zhang Peichao (host): Thank you Secretary -General Sun, we return to the chlorine industry again, and now the PVC market has been relatively low. The more important factors are chlorine balance, including low status and zero prices in many areas. Time, like a large and medium PVC is a large area of \u200b\u200blosses. How does Zhang’s view of chlorine balance, there is also a representativeIt is also mentioned that this question will be reflected in Mr. Zhang’s answer. At present, PVC’s low price and corporate losses should maintain the operating rate? Please answer Zhang.
Zhang Renwu: In fact, PVC is good or alkaline, especially our chlorine, there is not much composite. In fact, the current PVC is not optimistic. As a manufacturer, they want to adjust production into the most suitable composite of their own corporate benefits. For example, PVC’s production complex is less than 60%, is it the best? I may be 60%of a company, or it may be 50%of Wuxi Tianyuan. It is different. According to her own assets, personnel, logistics, etc., as Miss Mo Xiaoru has many indicators, but for chlorine -alkali Balance I actually say \”I would rather have no abuse\”. There is no place for this chlorine to go. There is no place to go to the people. Just like we are here, especially the real economy has some wastes. Some people say that I will deal with it. How much is it to help you, the final unlucky is the descendants of the descendants. If we want to pay attention to our industry, it is a healthy, environmentally friendly, and safe harassment, especially the market strike.
Zhang Peichao (host): Thank you President Zhang, there is a question of Mr. Xiao. As a domestic, PVC production is very large. At the end of last year, it exceeded 21 million tons. Now the output is increasing. The market is the development strategy of many enterprises now, but from the perspective of customs figures, the output was less than 3%last year. In this case, Mr. Xiao please introduce what plans for Yibin Tianyuan Group? What difficulties will it face such a large PVC company in China to enter the international market? How is the prospect? President Xiao gave a look.
Xiao Jingshi: It should be said that the export strategy cannot be talked about. From the perspective of the current domestic PVC, or the current situation of chlorine, I estimate that many companies can basically not talk about longer or strategic planning in the export market. I personally understand the fundamental reason. PVC’s entire participation in international market competition is more single, and the simple cost advantage participates in competition. From the perspective of participating in market competition, the only thing is to compare the price. Looking back, the overall domestic price is good, and the domestic operating situation is difficult to this point. I have analyzed the price before the export market. Many companies have to calculate accounts at this point. Whether I sell it abroad or domestic. If the price is reasonable, I still sell it in the country. This is why the domestic export market has never been able to go. In the long run, China’s PVC participates in market competition, and it is more necessary to upgrade from technology. The new varieties participate in the market. From the perspective of the international market, there are high -end markets and low -end markets. At present, we are in India, Indonesia, Southeast Asia Even Africa’s relatively low -end markets, we did not do the real high -end market, including domestic high -end markets that did not enter this field. Today I talked to Mr. Zhang that many things in the field of pharmaceutical industries and transparent products still have some gaps in technology and quality. If you really want to solve the market for exports and go to a healthy or mature export strategy, more needIt is my understanding by supporting support and supporting the quality of the variety.
Zhang Peichao (host): Thank you Mr. Xiao. The following is the situation in the downstream. Please ask President Yuan and President Tian to answer it. President Yuan is in Wuxi and Tian is in Shanghai. I want to invite the two boss to share with you in the next industry in the area where East China and South China are located. What changes? Ask Yuan to answer it first.
Yuan Gen: Personally feel that the overall benefits are not good. Since the fourth quarter of last year, it is more dangerous. At the beginning, some small companies have closed down, and even some companies have closed the door. For our company, the macro funds in the second half of the year cannot be transferred. It used to be 500 tons before. Now there is basically no small households in Jiangsu. I think there may be more in Zhejiang and South China and Hubei. It turned out to be more than 3,000 tons, now 1,000 tons, and it has been rare this year, even now a few hundred tons. From January to March this year, it has been rejected at about 600-800 tons. The amount of goods has been very small, and the order has been small. The original inventory was placed in about a month, resulting in a bad downstream consumption. I personally feel that East China and South China have been in a downturn since the 4th quarter of last year.
Tian Hongyi: I think President Yuan said very well. Some time ago, we had a lot of downstream companies in Ningbo. There was a party here. At the meeting, there was a relatively large industry enterprise. After the Spring Festival, a event was engaged in a significant price reduction. When communicating, everyone still had doubts. Now it is very problematic. At present, about 70%of PVC is applied to the construction of houses. Since last year, the entire Chinese housing regulation and control. The impact of the application of PVC is very obvious when communicating. decline. This piece of software is relatively good. Now the entire application of hard products accounts for 70%, which has a great impact on the industry.
There is a trend of downstream development of PVC. Now it is more obvious that the transfer of processing bases in the central and western regions and inland areas. When downstream enterprises exchange, it also talks about this. PVC Midwest, including northern local production and consumption, may be good.
Zhang Peichao (Moderator): Thank you two bosss. The next problem is about the industry and the development of the macro level. I want to think at the scene of the scene here. After his own point of view, he also gives time to friends in the stage.
The problem of our electrical and ethylene method has become increasingly diversified in recent years. Some companies such as coal quality, natural gas, etc. are also exploring and trying. The changes in the planting industry are also as mentioned as President Zhang, including David Corporation also mentioned in the morning that domestic energy also faces some big changes. Whether it is a natural gas method or the development of shale gas, I think these are all of themThere will be some variables for the future game. I want to ask five leaders here to talk about the prospects of the electrical and ethylene method? Start with Mr. Xiao.
Xiao Jingshi: Let me briefly talk about the concept of the ethylene method. I want to talk about my knowledge. Our traditional division of the electrical or ethylene method. There is a background. Industry understanding is called petroleum law. The true source of the electric stone method has also come from coal carbon. Just now the host also talked about many new channels now, such as natural gas and shale gas. Will these energy channels change? This is worth exploring.
From the perspective of the market, I talk about the understanding of the two industries. Since 2003, the stone method and ethylene method have developed so fast. There is a large background. From the perspective of the overall downstream segmentation, the ethylene method meets the high quality requirements and the less sensitive demand for prices. The stone method makes up for the high cost -effective requirements. Essence Especially with the downstream processing piece, the hard product can also be done for the ethylene method, but the cost and cost -effectiveness are different. From the downstream, you will definitely choose more cheap things, or things that match more quality. In addition to traditional energy and resource backgrounds in recent years, there are market backgrounds here.
What are the problems in the future of the electrocka and ethylene? The existence of the electrical stone method is the advantage of cost. Whether it can continue and adhere to this advantage in the future. With the diversification of the ethylene raw materials, the diversification of the process, or the intensity of the cost control, is it possible that the cost of the electric stone method is approaching one day. The intuitive reflection is whether the price is lower than that of ethylene. Will there be a normal state in this case, or occasionally this happens. This is what I will think as an ethylene manufacturer.
For coal quality and natural gas, it is still facing some cost issues, especially the shale gas is relatively hot. Everyone says how the United States is. In fact It is more about the layout of resources and the structural problems of resources. From the current exploration of shale gas, the depth of mining is at least 3000-5000 meters, while the United States is 1000-2000 meters. Moreover, the natural gas network in the United States is very complete, and China is currently quite backward. The US statistics of 550,000 natural gas numbers, 4-5 tons of our country, a 10-fold gap, including the subsequent cost of how to solve it? The risk of the entire mining is very high, which has also led to the perspective of the ethylene method. In the short term, it can be compared with the calculus method for a period of time. The stone method still has certain advantages.
The stone method also faces environmental protection issues. Whether everyone said is imminent, the problem of low mercury in 2015, or the PVC content, there are always some restrictions. In the future, the electrical stone method still depends on the market to determine the two processesIn turn, we have to think about cost control in turn that can not meet the needs of the market; our technology also includes environmental protection technology, whether it can meet the needs of policy development, which also determines that the entire two processes decide to go towards different development endings.
Yuan Gen: I agree with President Xiao’s opinion. On the issue raised by the host, I just have a personal point of view. The first electrical method cannot be broken because China has demand, whether it is environmental protection or what, it is useless. For example, when a beggar does not have food and clothing, you can let him talk about hygiene, at least there must be a market, otherwise the stone method will not develop so fast; second, the ethylene method is very affordable, don’t look at the proportion, it has been declining, and even more, it is more. The important thing is that the raw materials of the ethylene method are gradually optimizing. The environmental protection of Mr. Xiao, the ethylene method basically has sewage, and the row of sewage of 20 tons of stone method is the difference. When we introduce this set of ethylene, we are still relatively early. What we talk about with Japan is the food grade, which can make the raw materials to the extreme. Another environmental protection I did not track the result. There is a house in Qingdao, Shandong. Now reporters are all in some local programs. Is the cement ball lying down in the house? News is the Shandong program \”Life Gang\”. Another stone method is more difficult than the ethylene method, and our manufacturer is very clear.
More importantly, today’s speeches also mentioned that Xinjiang and Anhui have large PVC devices. Can the west be transported in order? Whether it is soft or hard products, how much can you use? In the future, logistics costs determine whether companies can survive? Third, the quality of PVC products will no longer be improved by one level. It depends on its large -scale profit, and does not increase the content in the market. Once the PE cost is reduced, investors and developers will consider it. Have you been fighting PE? We are now trading metals. Many comrades’ homes are imported more than 20,000 yuan per ton. Now I calculate my cost of less than 10,000 to seize these markets. In the top five of the top five, all companies must compete for first -class, the first from the industry scale; the second from science and technology. The scale of the industry is 40 million oil refining capacity, 2 million ethylene, and 3,000 people in the world. The scale, cost and PE ratio are proposed; At present, the reason why China and Europe and the United States are competing to compete. To be honest, to some extent, it depends on state -owned enterprises. China pays 9 billion national taxes to the country a day. Big responsibility.
The host said today, how does the electrical and ethylene method do? The Middle East and the United States shale gas, we are now adjusting the raw materials. PetroChina is expensive. In June, the petroleum oil fell by about 800-1000 yuan per ton, let alone the price reduction of vapor diesel. This is linked. In addition, the cost of using petroleum oil and the remaining oil left by diesel is greatly reduced. Therefore, the current ethylene method can be supported, and the stone method can not be broken. Why does Mr. Xiao speak? , This can fulfill the responsibility for societyBig, that is the winner, thank you!
Sun Weishan: From the perspective of energy, I have a lot of energy consumption in our country. Relevant parties predict that the planning of our country will reach 15%by 2020, or biological energy will reach 15%. At that time, the energy structure has changed. In addition, they just mentioned shale gas development and utilization, and it is expected that by 2030, the entire energy proportion of the entire energy is 30%. Before 2020, the PVC of the Corporal Law seemed to have no great threats. It will definitely develop until 2020. After 2020, the rise of natural gas energy consumption in China. The supporting facilities of basic merchants are already equipped. Some companies are studying. Natural gas issues may be something after 2020.
Our country also announced yesterday that the shale gas reserves are 13.3 billion, and the shale gas content is low, which can solve China’s energy problems. If shale gas solves the problem of Chinese energy, it may be how the ethylene method and the electric stone method are not easy to say. The shale gas is very cheap. At that time, the technical problems were solved. It may not be the problem of ethylene or electrical method, or the problem of shale gas. If the shale gas gives you 1 yuan to start, what is the price of the oil return. Just now, Zhang said that the ethylene method with coal as the raw material can be supported. Now it is developing a technology to cooperate with EDC and ethylene. Now there is a preliminary result. , Corporal Method is a method, which is more advanced than any method. What Mr. Zhang just talked about technological progress just depends on what extent scientific and technological innovation. Now the acetylene and ethylene method developed by the Development and Reform Commission can be successful. Both industry problems are solved. I want to see technological progress. I will say so much, thank you!
Yuan Gen: From the perspective of the ethylene method, the ethylene method is very small. At present, the market environment is fast. The market has obvious advantages. Due to the low cost of resource advantages, it is relatively low. This laid a good development space for individuals. The cost of ethylene oil is very high, and the cost of electric stone is low, which depends on the situation of foreign restrictions. I personally think that there are some restrictions on the development of the ethylene method. thank you all!
Tian Hongyi: From the perspective of Chinese people, it is best to be unique in the electric stone industry. We have our own intellectual property rights, but now for the PVC of the Corporal Method, there are several difficult to solve. From the production of electric stones to the production of acetylene, to the production of VCM, environmental protection issues throughout the process are not just PVCs, including the environmental protection of the production of the electric stone industry. I do n’t know how to solve this problem in the future? I just feel the production of the entire coastal electrical stone method. Many of them are administrative behaviors. Now we feel that there are some places that people in some places rush to the company, indicating that our people’s demand for environmental protection will become stronger and stronger. In this case, I feel that the entire coastal coastal may even gradually be affected to the Mainland to the central region, which has something to do with ordinary people.If the electric stone method is beside my house, I will definitely have an opinion. I have treated in the factory and I know what happened.
China Coal and Oil are now pure energy issues. China has many coal. From my personal feelings, PVCs will still be concentrated in large groups in the west, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang regions. Not necessarily wonderful. At present, the group production and control of enterprises produced in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang gradually decreases, and the cost is gradually reduced, which has a serious cost for central electrical stone production enterprises. In the future, there will be some core electro -stone factories in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. The PVC factory of the coastal ethylene method is still very moisturized. From the entire supply, the PVC supply of the stone method is available to the area with the highest population density. In a structure, in China, the price of coal is gradually going up. The price of coal is up and the price of electricity is up. Good craftsmanship to solve.
Zhang Peichao (host): Thank you for five guests. The guests have the same points and different views on this issue. Let’s take a look at which guests on the stage expressed their views. Please raise your hand. The opportunity is rare! If not, continue our topic, see that everyone still likes to listen to guests, because the time is limited, it is only 10 minutes, and finally prepare a question. What we talked about before is the macro level of the industry. Regarding the price of the PVC market price, I think everyone here is more concerned about this issue. Whether it is spot or futures, the current PVC market has been at a low position since the end of the 3rd and 4th quarter of last year. Fall, how do you go from the spot market PVC in the face of this situation? It ’s always so calm, will there be a wave of markets? I want to hear the opinions of guests.
Xiao Jingshi: My point of view of Chinahua International (600500, stock bar) Ms. Mo talked about the viewpoint of chlorine. I think it can be paid attention to from the fundamentals of the market. I personally pay more attention to the level of chlorine. Intersection Speaking of macro, the development trend of the entire PVC and the macroeconomic economy from the second half of last year to this year is closely related. No matter from the second half of last year or the cost of this year, the price has been going on again. The price does not have much impact, including the transmission of price costs in the process of rising, basically not realized, and the price decline may be driven during the decline process. The recent decline in PVC prices may not be completely related to the cost of electric stone. It may have a great degree of correlation with the current macroeconomic surface. The Greek issues we talked about this morning, including the macro -surface problem of the domestic crisis, may lead to the current PVC price The downturn, even a certain decline.
My analysis, can PVC prices be improved in the second half of the year, in the second half of the year, or what is better?degree? I think it depends on the impact of macro, including chlorine, and may also be combined with macroe. I am not good at predicting how much the price has come. The predictions are fairy tales. Trend, this is my point of view.
Zhang Renwu: Thank you! Then President Xiao’s words, this year, the CEO of Zhongtai (Yin) also said that one ton of PVC costs 2,000 yuan. What is the situation of corporate benefits? I still have six sons \”can’t die, not live well\”, which is the current situation. I remember talking about this in Nanjing a few years ago. Our country exports to pull domestic demand. Everyone is willing to use PVC. If the output is large, the cost is low. something wrong. Before the trap, the consolidation was implemented. Before the meeting, I asked the host a message. The internal reference we saw in April was doubled, and the output decreased from the same period last year. There are also objective factors, which uses a lot of data from Mo Xiaoru’s analysis, and may be maintained. The supply chain is not about marketing or others, including production and management.
I have several reasons. This time, there are not many large orders at the Canton Fair. Three words are used to summarize \”short, small, and scattered\”. Not big, this is also a signal for the market. Coupled with our PVC downstairs this year, we are exploring the capacity of polyolefins. By this year, the production capacity of polyolefins has reached 26 million. As our company, we should consider that it cannot be said to analyze the impact of the Middle East, plus the impact of MTO.
There is also a need for virtual inventory. We have seen a lot of information today. Some experts introduced to everyone that the price has fallen, inventory rises, and the middle business inventory has not risen. Why? A phenomenon of cash now does not put the money in that price, and you can buy PVC when you want to spend. This is the poor export. The export is not smooth, but it has been impacted by imports. The import is more than 30%compared with last year. If you think about our domestic demand, you can occupy foreigners when you pull it. Insufficient consumption is a prominent manifestation. In January to April, China’s production capacity is only 35%, and our production capacity is 50-60%, which is only 35%, which is lower. The pre-judgment of this market is May 23rd Premier Wen specialized in the meeting to release some projects in advance, and everyone has felt several thousands of billions of projects approved by the Development and Reform Commission. In addition, Chairman Hu went to Ningbo again. Premier Wen wanted to ask for guarantee 8. For example, the control of the building is impossible, so that we are still struggling to look at it, then everyone needs to work together. In this forum, it is sad to spend the New Year, and the year is good.
Zhang Peichao (host): President Sun introduced the situation of the electric stones.
Sun Weishan: There are very few companies that can withstand 3,000 yuan now. Several of Xinjiang can still hold about about 3,000 yuan.Mongolia can hardly find 3,000 yuan companies, not to mention other areas, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang can’t stand it. Ningxia and Shaanxi are also unable to hold it. High, there is still a production cost of less than 3,000 yuan in Xinjiang, and the coal is not transported, and it may be lower. Inner Mongolia’s coal is sold throughout the country, 800 yuan sells you cheap. The cost of pulling back now is too high. It is impossible to transport electric stones from Xinjiang. From this perspective Essence
At present, Inner Mongolia has spent 20-30%of enterprises. Some small companies that rely on commodities are basically not done. Then continue, we add 200 yuan for you. If you lose less, do I do so much money, why do I do? From the perspective of electric stones, you do not support your output. Energy-saving capacity has been developing other products for the development of electric stones in the past few years. Now the energy-saving capacity is 3 million-4 million. In 2008, PVC is not good. Other industries have used 6 million electric stones. In recent years, other industries in other industries In development, although the State Bureau of Statistics’ data from 1500-1600, there are actually 17-18 million, which shows that the industry’s stones flow to other industries, including the polyvinyl chloride industry, and the toll station industry. Some other products, including carbon black, and traditional mechanical cutting. This amount is basically stable, which is about 50 yuan, and it does not account for about 8%of the electric stone output. Other small products are also doing, I hope that this industry will have the impact on PVC through other industries. At present, the main consumption targets of electric stones are PVC. When it is high, 77%, 77%of products flow to the PVC industry. From January to April, the output of the electric stones was 6.28 million tons, an increase of 12.4%year-on-year, while our PVC increased by only 5.6%, and the PVC increased in the first quarter was more than 10%. Otherwise, you have to die.
There are about 50 or 6 companies in Inner Mongolia that have been transferred, so that most of the companies that can be dispersed. Most of the companies that can be preserved now are also matched with downstream products, and they can’t stand it. At present, I have the development of the stone industry. I called for a little development speed at a number of meetings. We have developed too fast. When I went to Xinjiang in 2010 to investigate with Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia was half 10 million tons of PVC. , Xinjiang Autonomous Region also has to do 10 million tons of PVC. Now many projects are dry there, which is a headache. I really have a headache now. Who does it sell 20 million \”Twelfth Five -Year Plan\” to? Who did not sell the market just now? What is the 10 million tons of PVC transported by Xinjiang? What is the biggest trouble of alkali? I published a strange theory on that day. I said what to do if the sky is flying and walking on the ground. What should I do if my solid alkali is not allowed? It is impossible to come out, and there is no way to achieve it.
I said another oneI have a problem, and I am doing a topic of the Ministry of Water Resources. The state requires the management process of strict water collection. Now the Ministry of Water Conservancy requires the industry to provide the consumption quota and water collection quota. Talking about the amount of water in the water, Zhang’s talked about PVC’s dry one ton about 20 water. This is just to mention this sentence. The manufacturer must pay attention to the problem of water. Many years we don’t pay much attention to water. We are too lacking in China in China. Water. When we were developed in the western region, we were doing high -water consumption industries. Whether it was the PVC industry or the industry, our western lack of water was very good. I just gave you this suggestion. In the future The price increase also has the problem of pollution safety and environmental protection, and the cost will also be increased. How can such a high cost support PVC decline? This problem may be here to dry the PVC industry. Should we really study how large we want to do? Is it embarrassed to do the boss of the country and the boss? The time is delayed.
Yuan Gen: From the perspective of trade, the speed in recent years is too slow, it is faster. The price impact of the PVC is not good in the overall macro as a whole, the downstream funds are insufficient, and the business is difficult to operate. The price is naturally not good. This year is another price reduction, basically there is no appearance. There are too many upstream industries, the market environment in the Northwest region is so poor, but large -scale expansion. I feel that the next consumer demand country macro -control housing prices will fall, and housing prices will fall. Many real estate -related industries will be greatly affected from the second half of last year, such as steel and other industries will be affected. Especially this year many steel industries, such as Wenzhou’s business owner, escaped and walked away.
I personally have the bottom of the trend. As far as I know, the size of the upstream enterprises is small. Although the profit of the alkali is eliminated, some companies are about 200,000. , Now I have rejuvenated. I personally think that the second half of the year is going to the end, and I can’t get it down again. Why? The speed of falling is too fast.
Tian Hongyi: The future trend of PVC products, China’s current PVC is a closed market. Basically, it jumps around in the domestic price. I went to Hebei in April. I stayed there for a long time, and he told me that there were 20 in the morning every day at this time last year. I stayed for half a day that day he answered 4 calls. Where did his sofa sell? Sell \u200b\u200bto the middle and low -level people, and the house changed the house to buy a sofa. It shows that buying sofas from last year from this year is because it is only bought by moving a house. The relocation of the new house is very powerful. At this time next year, we will basically wait for the house construction. There may be many people who buy the sofa next year. It is difficult to get better in the month. In terms of demand, PVC prices are more difficult to improve, because there is no driving force, Secretary -General Sun said just now that the electric stone industry is very good now, as long as the demand is full production capacity. Now the entire PVC production capacity is so low, we are from abroadWhen communicating, some friends abroad asked why such a low operating rate was opened? What we see is 70%to 65%from the upstream of China’s PVC. I have been opening. I can only say one. Many factories would rather lose money. The cost model is invalid here. The upstream industry of the entire PVC must be making money. Some companies are losing money, some companies make money, and the accounting system of various enterprises cannot. This is a cost perspective. Now this price will fall down. I think it will fall. It doesn’t work for him, because many companies lose money.
What extent do I think the price can reach in the end? It still depends on domestic supply and demand. If the expectations of demand have been low, this price will not survive. I personally think that there is no more macro conditions in the third quarter. It is said that the price will turn back, which may only rebound in the process. This is my personal point of view.
Zhang Peichao (host): Thank you five guests. I want to answer this question. The representatives are their own judgments. Because of the limited time, today’s guest interview link is over here, and finally I use warm applause. Thanks for the wonderful answers for the five guests! Today’s interview link is over.